District 4 is the first race on this list with Congressman John Doolittle in a massive amount of trouble. Doolittle has been investigated not only for his connections to the Jack Abramoff influence buying scandal, he is also associated with Brent Wilkes, the defense contractor known for his involvement with former Congressman Duke Cunningham, who's currently in jail. Doolittle barely held off little known Chrles Brown in 2006 with 49% ofthe vote, that was before the FBI raided his house. Doolittle will face an array of primary challengers including Army Reservist Eric Egland, and Former Auburn Mayor J.M. Holmes, who took 33% of the vote in the primary in 2006. Popular State Assemblyman Ted Gaines has formed an exploratory committee. For the Democrats, 2006 Nominee, retired Air Force Lt. Colonel Charles Brown is back and has outriased Doolittle after the first 2 quarters of 2007. Brown came within 3% of defeating Doolittle in 06 and if Doolittle survives the primary, I give Brown and even shot at this seat. Thus ranking it a toss-up
California's 11th district makes the list despite the successful first term of Congressman Jerry McNerney, who defeated the previous incumbent Richard Pombo by 6%. Former State Assemblyman Dean Andal has come forward to challenge McNerney. He trails badly in the race for funds but has over 200,000 and that should be more than enough to atleast get his message out there. In this Republican district, the scandal clad former incumbent may still have an impact as scandals pop up all over the place for Republicans and McNerney is sure to make that an issue. Thus far, this race ranks as leans Democrat.
California's 26th District features longtime Republican Congressman David Drier. While Drier has been a staple in this district since 1980, his vote totals have fallen off recently. Direr was held below 60% for the first time in years in both 2004 and 2006 by a candidate who had been ostracized by the Democratic establishment and whom he outspent 30-1. Both of the Democratic canddiates, Russ Warner and Hoyt Hilsman have raised over 100,000 dollars and have a some name recognition after primary losses in 2006. On paper, they look like similar canddiates but I'm expecting Warner to come out of the primary since he finished second to Matthews last year in a close race while Hilsman was a distant third and last place, but a surprise Hilsman victory wouldn't be all that surprising. Having a candidate that the national party will support, I expect the Democrats to push a serious challenger in this district and as of now, this race leans Republican.
In District 41, Congressman Jerry Lewis has come under very heavy fire for a multitude of ethicals violations. The citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has Lewis on its list of the most corrupt congressman. due to his misuse of his position as Chairman of the House appropriations committee where he steered hundreads of millions of dollars in earmarks to family and friends in direct exchange for campaign contributions and contributions to his political action committee. He has been mentioned in current federal investigations including the Lowery Lobbying firm case and the U.S. Attorney scandal after former U.S. Attorney Carol Lam was fired. Lam had been actively investigating Lewis at the time. Lewis has also racked up quite a list of other ethical lapses including hisconnestions to cErberus Capital "Management, having a military officer who was on the Pentagon's payroll as his aide tracking defense appropriations, recieveing free meals paid for by lobbyists and contractors while on a tour in Europe and his Barracks row earmark that benefitted his wife and some friends. Democratic activist and Attorney Tim Prince is supposedly challenging Lewis and has a webiste up but hasn't filed with the FEC to raise money. When a Democratic challenger who isn't Louie Contreras gets in the race, the seat should be competetive, and until then this seat leans Republican.
District 42's congressman has the same problem as Drier. Congressman Gary Miller is also on the list of the most unethical congressman for a slew of varying ethical problems that would take up more space to list out than this blog has space available, I've found 7 different instances of personal misconduct and open IRS and FBI investigations into Miller and that was just the first search. No real major canddiates have emerged in this district and I have to wonder if the Democrats even have a really strong candidate. Montabello School Board Member Ed Chou seems to be the best candidate on paper as last years nominee, Mark Hull-Richter got destroyed by Miller is the only other known candidate in the race. Untill some real action happens here on the Democratic side, this race leans Republican.
District 52 will probably be the most Republican leaning district on this list. Congressman Duncan Hunter is running for President and there are atleast 6 candidates mentioned for the race. Of those 6, only 3 are thus far active. Duncan D. Hunter, the incumbent's son, is running for the seat, from Iraq. Duncan D. Hunter is currently serving in the military and could be overseas when the voting takes place. This will make for a very interesting and entertaining propsepct as it will be interesting to see this type of campaign run. Santee City Councilman, Minister Brian Jones, and conservative activist Ken King have also announced campaigns. State Assemblymen Joel Anderson and Steve Baldwin are believed to be looking at the race as is San Diego Superior Court Judge Jan Goldsmith. The Democrats have 2 challengers for the seat in military veterans Jim Hester and Mike Lumpkin. Both have the potential to make great candidates and while both are political novices, they both have a great background to run on from their military service to their education and business experience. Fundraising and name recognition will be the key to the Democratic primary but the winner may not be strong enough to overcome the Rewpublican leane here. This rates leane Republican.
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