Hello to All, and welcome to the Partisan Politic. I'm Rob Millette and I'll be posting a variety of things about the Senate in the months to come including a monthly preview of the senate races.
To preview these races, I'll be using a tier system for ranking the races from a frist tier race to a fifth tier race. The first 3 tiers will be composed of competetive or potentially competetive races while the bottom 2 will be composed of safe seats. First tier races will be the best current takeover opportunities and usually the most competetive races, though in some instances, a first tier race will be a real snoozer. An instance of this will be this years Kentucky Governor's race. Steve Beshear is going to wipe the floor with the Incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher, but since the Democrats will be taking over the seat, the race would be considered a first tier race.
Second tier races are races that could become competetive with just one change to the current setup. These races will focus on speculation of candidates who may enter the race to make the race competetive. New Hampshire is a good example of this, while it may actually find itself in the first tier anyway, if Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen enters the race, it will become a first tier race, but as long as Shaheen's entry is only speculation, it will sit here in the second tier. The second tier is the holding place for races that could either move up or drop off the map.
Third tier races are the races that need a few things to happen before the become competetive. Delaware is a good example of this type of Race. Senator Joe Biden is safe if he runs but he is running for President. If Biden's presidetial campaign pulls a rabbit out of the hat and then gets a miracle and he vacates his seat, The Republicans would then need Congressman Mike Castle to run for the seat to have a chance. So third tier seats need safe incumbents to leave AND strong candidates to enter.
A fourth tier seat is considered realtively safe. Idaho issuch a seat. Even with Former Senator Larry Craig's resignation is disgrace due to his solicitation of a male undercover officer in the Minneapolis airports men's room, it is widely expected that popular Lt. Governor Jim Risch will be appointed to the seat. Even with Craig's troubles adding a stain to the GOP name, I just don't see former Congressman Larry LaRocco winning this seat. However, this would be a 4th tier race because of the circumstances in Idaho. This seat is less safe than other seats considered safe.
The fifth tier is obviously made up of seats that are as a safe as they get. Massachusetts and Senator John Kerry sit among this listing. Kerry has the seat until he leaves it and even then, a Democrat will win it. End of discussion.
Tier rankings will run the first Saturday of every month and the actual rankings will begin in October. Let the games begin.
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