In the Frist district, Congressman Richard Renzi is retiring at the end of his term, assuming he doesn't resign first. The FBI raiding the Renzi's family business as part of an ongoing federal investigation. Renzi had only recieved 52% of the vote in 2006 before the investigation to little known Sedona City attorney Ellen Simon, so the district would be competetive anyway. But with the ethics scandals in play, it becomes even more so.
The Republicans have major candidates ready to defend the seat. Former State Senate President Ken Bennett is looking at the race and would make a strong candidate. State Senator Tom O'Halloran and State Representative Bill Konopnicki represent parts of the district in their respective state legistlative houses and both are in the race. 2006 Candidate Sydney ann Hay is also making a challenge for the seat. She did well against Renzi in a primary and should do well again.
For the Democrats, State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick has resigned her State seat to run for this one as is required by Arizona law. She appears to be the early favorite on the Democratic side as the candidates currently in the race, Winslow Mayor Allen Affeldt and Attorney Howard Shanker, have run lack-luster campaigns, but other Democratic prospects are also looking at this race, including Senate nominne Jim Pederson, so it can change rather quickly.
The second district looks to be a re-match between Congressman Trent Franks and John Thrasher, who took 39% of the vote in 2006. Franks doesn't have a ton of money and could be somewhat vulnerable. Thrasher, who won a 3 way primary last year, has solidified the local democratic community behind him and is no longer politically unknown. 2006 was Thrashers first campaign so his second should be better. Franks doesn't have to stay awake at night worrying about Thrasher yet, but this seat could get interesting down the road.
The Third district looks to be very competetive this year. John Shadegg is being accused of pay for play votes by his challengers and has recieved a lot of special interest money during the second quarter. This attack on Shadegg may or may not be effective, though no investigation has been launched.
The Democratic Challenger, Bob Lord, outraised Shadegg in the first quarter and would have done so again in the second if the Special interests had not gotten involved. Lord is one of the best financed challengers the Democrats have. He has held several positions with in the district including a seat on the Scottsdale Airport Advisory Commission and is a local attorney serving as the disciplinary hearing officer for the Arizona Supreme Court.
District 4 can be summed up in 5 words, Congressman Ed Pastor will win
District 5 on the other hand, needs many more words for a summation. Congressman Harry Mitchell upset the previous owner of this seat, J.D. Hayworth in 2006. Several Republicans are vying to take it back. Mark Anderson and Laura Knaperek are the early leaders, both having held office in the state legislature, but Matt Salmon, a former United States Representative and Gubernatorial nominee could change all that if he should decide to enter.
District 6 should remian in Republican hands but it could have an interesting primary. State Representative Russle Pearce, a hard-liner on immagration, is running against Flake because of his position on amnesty, a huge topic of debate in this area. Flake, only facing Libertarian opposition has been held under 80% by them in the last 2 races and could be vulnerable to Pearce. The Club for Growth loves Flake though, and will most likely spend heavily to protect him.
District 7 can be summed up as easily as district 4, Congressman Raul Grijalva is safe
District 8 is the 4th competetive district in the state. Congressman Gabby Giffords, who won the open seat contest over then State Representative Randy Graf will face State Senator Timothy Bee. Bee is slightly less conservative than Graf and more like moderate former Congressman Jim Kolbe, whom held the seat before Giffords. Giffords won't be a push over, but this seat will be one to watch.
6 comments:
Regarding Arizona Dist. 1, first off, you've obviously not been paying attention to the race. Allen dropped out several months ago. As for Shanker, he's been driving all over the district meeting voters and is being well- received.
As for leaders, sure, if you talking about the "pre-chosen" candidate selected by the state Democratic Party insiders, Kirkpatrick seems to be THEIR choice. However, isn't the point of a primary to allow the WHOLE party to vote and the candidate with the most votes run against the opponents? The Arizona Democratic "Machine" seem to make the choice for the voters before hand. Afterwards, they wonder why the Republicans win the general election. It’s time the Dems in Arizona start acting like a democratic organization and allows the voters to select the party candidate.
Allen still has a FEC report on file and is therefore listed out as a candidate by the FEC. Thats where I got my information.
As for Shanker, he's may be running around and being well-recieved, but so are Joe Biden and Chriss Dodd and neither of them is going to be President ayntime soon. He hadn't even raise 50,000 as of his last FEC filing and his next one at the end of the month isn't expected to be much better.
Anne Kirkpatrick, at this point in time, looks to be the much better candidate. She representated a large portion of the ditrict, has a base of support and donors, and unlike Shanker, has good name recognition. All 3 of those are key aspects to the race. I don't see Shanker having much of a chance.
UPDATED INFORMATION -- The real heavyweight in this race is STEVE OWENS.
If you've seen Al Gore's film "An Inconvenient Truth" Gore discussed his service in Congress and how he and his staff worked tirelessly for environmental causes. STEVE OWENS was one Gore's top aides working with him on environmental issues.
Owens has continued his environmental work and remains close to Gore. Owens is now GOV JANET NAPOLITANO's Director of the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality.
He is likely to enter the AZ-1 race once he and Napolitano work out a transition plan for the Department of Environmental Quality.
That's why Kirkpatrick and Shanker are being routinely turned down as they ask grassroots,city and county leaders for support.
It is also why the top tier Republicans are keeping quiet or have said they won't make the run.
Okay...last posting on this one. Rob, you should really do some research. Check out Shanker's sites. www.shankerlaw.net or his campaign site www.shanker2008.com. He's clearly doing more to save the environment than Steve. in fact Steve is doing almost everything opposite of what Gore is promoting. For example, Steve approved a waste treatment facility on an environmentally sensitive site, Oak Creek, in Sedona and approved the use of waste water on the San Francisco Peaks. So who is environmentally friendly? In fact Steve and ADEQ never met a permit for a polluter they didn't like. Shanker regularly sues ADEQ, run by Owens, to protect the environment from the state.
Okay...last posting on this one. Rob, you should really do some research. Check out Shanker's sites. www.shankerlaw.net or his campaign site www.shanker2008.com. He's clearly doing more to save the environment than Steve. in fact Steve is doing almost everything opposite of what Gore is promoting. For example, Steve approved a waste treatment facility on an environmentally sensitive site, Oak Creek, in Sedona and approved the use of waste water on the San Francisco Peaks. So who is environmentally friendly? In fact Steve and ADEQ never met a permit for a polluter they didn't like. Shanker regularly sues ADEQ, run by Owens, to protect the environment from the state.
to here's the scoop, I'd like to point out that myself, and Rob are two entirely different people. Just to clarify that. I personally am unsure that Owens will really have a huge impact on the race. His name recognition may well have an impact as I'm sure he is a well known quantity. I am of the opinion that many of the local leaders will wait out the primary as not to fracture Democrats against Democrats ala the last Kentucky Governor's race with Lunsford support the Republican.
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