Partisan Politics

The partisan divide

2008-02-07T17:38:00.000-05:00

Many people talk about enthusiasm in the Presidential race today and talk about how Democrats are more excited about their candidates than Republicans are. The numbers from across the country seem to agree with that. During the Super Tuesday semi-national primary, 14.6 million Democrats went to the polls. When you compare that to the 9 million Republicans who went to the polls and then look at the number of Red States that voted ( 13 out of 22) and it becomes clear that the Republicans don't really like their candidates. With Romney suspending his campaign, fiscal conservatives now have no candidate to turn to and it will be interesting to see if the enthusiasm on the Republican side goes even lower.

Democrats certaintly have something to cheer about in the wake of Super Tuesday. With huge cash on hand advatages and a slew of great candidates at the lower levels on the ballot. Added enthusiasm for the Presidential candidates is just another rung on the ladder to victory.

OR-5: Darlene Hooley Retiring

2008-02-07T15:06:00.000-05:00

From a diary on SSP, Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) is retiring:

OR-05 is a D+1 district. Hooley has represented it since 1996 (when she beat Jim Bunn, one of the more aberrant members of the Class of 94). She's a New Dem, and somewhat to the right of the Dem caucus's midpoint with a Progressive Punch score in the low 80s.

Check out the diary for information on who's running for the GOP and who might run on the Dem side. Hopefully our DCCC cash advantage and the rising blue tide helps us win this the way we held OH-06 last year.

Rasmussen shows tie

2008-02-07T12:32:00.000-05:00

Rasmussen shows the opposite result from Gallup, a 44%/44% tie between Clinton and Obama. Meanwhile, McCain opened up a big 10% lead (39 % vs. 29% for Romney. As expected, now that McCain is the frontrunner, all the GOP sheep are hopping aboard the More War Express.

And apparently Rasmussen’s no longer reporting Bush’s approval on a daily basis - seems they’ve switched to weekly. Seems like an obvious move due to Bush’s rapidly growing irrelevency, but I wish they would have announced it officially.

Scary lead for Clinton

2008-02-07T08:59:00.000-05:00

Today's Daily Gallup Tracking Poll is showing a 52-39 lead for Clinton. This is probably due to the press she gets for winning California, plus undecideds who made up their mind to vote for Hillary last Tuesday in CA, NY, NJ, MA. This is not a good trend and hopefully Saturday gives Obama better momentum heading into Virginia.

Coming Soon: Election Inspection

2008-02-06T23:10:00.000-05:00

Rob and I and probably a few others have a new blog in the works, Election Inspection. We'll be tracking races and polls and making predictions. Watch this space.

Republican Loyalty

2007-11-29T10:46:00.000-05:00

I was sent to this article via a link in the NY Times. WDBJ grabbed an article from the AP saying that Republicans have gotten an oath cleared for use in the primary in Virginia that has the voter sign that they will vote Republican in the general election. Sounds like some in the party are getting a little anxious about their electoral chances. A primary oath is definitely illegal, and I'm not sure why it was approved. It's completely unenforceable, mainly a terrible PR move, unless people are that stupid.

http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=7411021&nav=S6aK

California 2008 races

2007-10-07T21:39:00.000-04:00

after several days worth of research on all 53 of California's Congressional districts and the writing of an insanely large summary of the races. I decided to run a list of only the races that appear to be potentially competetive at this time.

District 4 is the first race on this list with Congressman John Doolittle in a massive amount of trouble. Doolittle has been investigated not only for his connections to the Jack Abramoff influence buying scandal, he is also associated with Brent Wilkes, the defense contractor known for his involvement with former Congressman Duke Cunningham, who's currently in jail. Doolittle barely held off little known Chrles Brown in 2006 with 49% ofthe vote, that was before the FBI raided his house. Doolittle will face an array of primary challengers including Army Reservist Eric Egland, and Former Auburn Mayor J.M. Holmes, who took 33% of the vote in the primary in 2006. Popular State Assemblyman Ted Gaines has formed an exploratory committee. For the Democrats, 2006 Nominee, retired Air Force Lt. Colonel Charles Brown is back and has outriased Doolittle after the first 2 quarters of 2007. Brown came within 3% of defeating Doolittle in 06 and if Doolittle survives the primary, I give Brown and even shot at this seat. Thus ranking it a toss-up

California's 11th district makes the list despite the successful first term of Congressman Jerry McNerney, who defeated the previous incumbent Richard Pombo by 6%. Former State Assemblyman Dean Andal has come forward to challenge McNerney. He trails badly in the race for funds but has over 200,000 and that should be more than enough to atleast get his message out there. In this Republican district, the scandal clad former incumbent may still have an impact as scandals pop up all over the place for Republicans and McNerney is sure to make that an issue. Thus far, this race ranks as leans Democrat.

California's 26th District features longtime Republican Congressman David Drier. While Drier has been a staple in this district since 1980, his vote totals have fallen off recently. Direr was held below 60% for the first time in years in both 2004 and 2006 by a candidate who had been ostracized by the Democratic establishment and whom he outspent 30-1. Both of the Democratic canddiates, Russ Warner and Hoyt Hilsman have raised over 100,000 dollars and have a some name recognition after primary losses in 2006. On paper, they look like similar canddiates but I'm expecting Warner to come out of the primary since he finished second to Matthews last year in a close race while Hilsman was a distant third and last place, but a surprise Hilsman victory wouldn't be all that surprising. Having a candidate that the national party will support, I expect the Democrats to push a serious challenger in this district and as of now, this race leans Republican.

In District 41, Congressman Jerry Lewis has come under very heavy fire for a multitude of ethicals violations. The citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has Lewis on its list of the most corrupt congressman. due to his misuse of his position as Chairman of the House appropriations committee where he steered hundreads of millions of dollars in earmarks to family and friends in direct exchange for campaign contributions and contributions to his political action committee. He has been mentioned in current federal investigations including the Lowery Lobbying firm case and the U.S. Attorney scandal after former U.S. Attorney Carol Lam was fired. Lam had been actively investigating Lewis at the time. Lewis has also racked up quite a list of other ethical lapses including hisconnestions to cErberus Capital "Management, having a military officer who was on the Pentagon's payroll as his aide tracking defense appropriations, recieveing free meals paid for by lobbyists and contractors while on a tour in Europe and his Barracks row earmark that benefitted his wife and some friends. Democratic activist and Attorney Tim Prince is supposedly challenging Lewis and has a webiste up but hasn't filed with the FEC to raise money. When a Democratic challenger who isn't Louie Contreras gets in the race, the seat should be competetive, and until then this seat leans Republican.

District 42's congressman has the same problem as Drier. Congressman Gary Miller is also on the list of the most unethical congressman for a slew of varying ethical problems that would take up more space to list out than this blog has space available, I've found 7 different instances of personal misconduct and open IRS and FBI investigations into Miller and that was just the first search. No real major canddiates have emerged in this district and I have to wonder if the Democrats even have a really strong candidate. Montabello School Board Member Ed Chou seems to be the best candidate on paper as last years nominee, Mark Hull-Richter got destroyed by Miller is the only other known candidate in the race. Untill some real action happens here on the Democratic side, this race leans Republican.

District 52 will probably be the most Republican leaning district on this list. Congressman Duncan Hunter is running for President and there are atleast 6 candidates mentioned for the race. Of those 6, only 3 are thus far active. Duncan D. Hunter, the incumbent's son, is running for the seat, from Iraq. Duncan D. Hunter is currently serving in the military and could be overseas when the voting takes place. This will make for a very interesting and entertaining propsepct as it will be interesting to see this type of campaign run. Santee City Councilman, Minister Brian Jones, and conservative activist Ken King have also announced campaigns. State Assemblymen Joel Anderson and Steve Baldwin are believed to be looking at the race as is San Diego Superior Court Judge Jan Goldsmith. The Democrats have 2 challengers for the seat in military veterans Jim Hester and Mike Lumpkin. Both have the potential to make great candidates and while both are political novices, they both have a great background to run on from their military service to their education and business experience. Fundraising and name recognition will be the key to the Democratic primary but the winner may not be strong enough to overcome the Rewpublican leane here. This rates leane Republican.

2007 Kentucky Election

2007-10-04T00:15:00.000-04:00

With only a little more than a month left until the election, it's time to push these last two summaries for the 2007 gubernatorial election through.
The Kentucky Race pits current Governor Ernie Fletcher (Republican) against long time politician Steve Beshear (Democrat).
Governor Fletcher has also made his rounds on the political circuit, serving as both a US and State representative from 1995-2003, before winning election to his current position. Recently, however, Mr. Fletcher's office has been in the limelight of scandal, obviously taking some tactics from the White House. Guilty of hiring employees based on their political persuasion, his public admission on behalf of the administration has lead him to be dismissed from any prosecution on the matter. Despite this, Mr. Fletcher has survived in the opinions of his party's primary voters.
Mr. Beshear has been a long-time representative of the people of Kentucky, serving from 1974 to 1987 as a State Rep., the State Attorney General, and the Lieutenant Governor. If the election results in a win for Beshear, this will be his first political office held in twenty years; he left Kentucky politics after losing the 1987 Governor's Election primary to Wallace G. Wilkinson, who was elected to that position.
Beshear does currently hold a 55%-35% lead over Fletcher for the general election.

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_gubernatorial_election%2C_2007

Unfortunetly the associated local newspaper articles are no longer accessible as of 10/04/2007

Arkansas 2008 races

2007-09-27T15:27:00.000-04:00

Arkansas, state number 4 on our 50 state tour, looks to be a real snoozer. With 1 senate race and 4 Congressional seats up for grabs in 2008, you'd think atleast 1 of them would be competetive. Thus far, none of them are.

Mark Pryor, the Democratic incumbent Senator, defeated the previous incumbent, Tim Hutchinson, by nearly 6 points in 2002, a heavily Republican year. The lone major challenger in this state, is Former Governor Mike Huckabee but he is pursuing a presidential race and while not in the top tier of candidates, is making a good run at the head of the second tier. Thus far, Pryor faces has no announced Republianc challengers and the only 2 names mentioned are former U.S. Attorney and 2006 Lieutenant Governor candidate Charles Banks, and Bank CEO French Hill. It is also possible the ambitious Lieutenant Governor William Halter would conduct a primary challenge but that is unlikely at this point.

In the congressional races, only Congressman John Boozeman (district 3) has an announced challenger. Attorney John Burnett is running for the Democrats but he does not seem to have a good campaign running as of yet. Congressmen Marion Berry (District 1), Vic Snyder (District 2) and Mike Ross (District 3) have beaten back serious challengers in the past and if a strong opponenent doesn't get into the race against them soon, it will make the uphill battle the challenger would face all the steeper. Mike Huckabee would be the serious challenger in any district he ran in but it is hard to nearly impossible to imagine him foregoing a Senate Challenge to run for the House assuming he gives up his Presidential bid. After the series of defeats on the state level in recent years, Republicans just don't have the manpower to give the incumbents a challenge this year. Of Course, despite the surge in candidates, the Democrats apparently don't have one for district 3 either. Though anything is possible if a Clinton is at the top of the ticket in this state.

Arizona 2008 races

2007-09-24T10:33:00.001-04:00

In our third state of this 50 state tour, we head to Arizona, which looks to be oneof the major battlegrounds. With 8 seats for Congress, we find that several of them will be competetive.

In the Frist district, Congressman Richard Renzi is retiring at the end of his term, assuming he doesn't resign first. The FBI raiding the Renzi's family business as part of an ongoing federal investigation. Renzi had only recieved 52% of the vote in 2006 before the investigation to little known Sedona City attorney Ellen Simon, so the district would be competetive anyway. But with the ethics scandals in play, it becomes even more so.

The Republicans have major candidates ready to defend the seat. Former State Senate President Ken Bennett is looking at the race and would make a strong candidate. State Senator Tom O'Halloran and State Representative Bill Konopnicki represent parts of the district in their respective state legistlative houses and both are in the race. 2006 Candidate Sydney ann Hay is also making a challenge for the seat. She did well against Renzi in a primary and should do well again.

For the Democrats, State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick has resigned her State seat to run for this one as is required by Arizona law. She appears to be the early favorite on the Democratic side as the candidates currently in the race, Winslow Mayor Allen Affeldt and Attorney Howard Shanker, have run lack-luster campaigns, but other Democratic prospects are also looking at this race, including Senate nominne Jim Pederson, so it can change rather quickly.

The second district looks to be a re-match between Congressman Trent Franks and John Thrasher, who took 39% of the vote in 2006. Franks doesn't have a ton of money and could be somewhat vulnerable. Thrasher, who won a 3 way primary last year, has solidified the local democratic community behind him and is no longer politically unknown. 2006 was Thrashers first campaign so his second should be better. Franks doesn't have to stay awake at night worrying about Thrasher yet, but this seat could get interesting down the road.

The Third district looks to be very competetive this year. John Shadegg is being accused of pay for play votes by his challengers and has recieved a lot of special interest money during the second quarter. This attack on Shadegg may or may not be effective, though no investigation has been launched.

The Democratic Challenger, Bob Lord, outraised Shadegg in the first quarter and would have done so again in the second if the Special interests had not gotten involved. Lord is one of the best financed challengers the Democrats have. He has held several positions with in the district including a seat on the Scottsdale Airport Advisory Commission and is a local attorney serving as the disciplinary hearing officer for the Arizona Supreme Court.

District 4 can be summed up in 5 words, Congressman Ed Pastor will win

District 5 on the other hand, needs many more words for a summation. Congressman Harry Mitchell upset the previous owner of this seat, J.D. Hayworth in 2006. Several Republicans are vying to take it back. Mark Anderson and Laura Knaperek are the early leaders, both having held office in the state legislature, but Matt Salmon, a former United States Representative and Gubernatorial nominee could change all that if he should decide to enter.

District 6 should remian in Republican hands but it could have an interesting primary. State Representative Russle Pearce, a hard-liner on immagration, is running against Flake because of his position on amnesty, a huge topic of debate in this area. Flake, only facing Libertarian opposition has been held under 80% by them in the last 2 races and could be vulnerable to Pearce. The Club for Growth loves Flake though, and will most likely spend heavily to protect him.

District 7 can be summed up as easily as district 4, Congressman Raul Grijalva is safe

District 8 is the 4th competetive district in the state. Congressman Gabby Giffords, who won the open seat contest over then State Representative Randy Graf will face State Senator Timothy Bee. Bee is slightly less conservative than Graf and more like moderate former Congressman Jim Kolbe, whom held the seat before Giffords. Giffords won't be a push over, but this seat will be one to watch.

Alaska 2008 races

2007-09-21T16:19:00.001-04:00

The Red State of Alaska in next up on our 50 state tour and what a surprising battleground state its proving to be.

In the senate race, Incumbent Republican Theodore Stevens has become the primary target of a federal corruption probe that initially targetted his sone, Former State Senate President Ben Stevens. The FBI and IRS raids on Ted's house regarding his renovations and the recent testimony of VECO Corp. president Bill Allen, who stated that his employee's did the work on Steven's house. Allen stated in open court that he had bribed a sitting U.S. Senator. Allen admitted that among the bribery charges he pled guilty to was the renovation work done to Steven's home, so Senator Steven's is in big time ethical trouble. To cap off his problems, the Club for Growth, an organization dedicated to electing fiscal conservatives, is looking to run a primary challenge against Steven's, whos unabashed earmarking and multitude of pork-barrel projects, including his multi-million dollar "bridge to nowhere", have enraged the group.

The Democrats, to this point, have just sat on the sidelines and watched Stevens deflate. Unalaska City Councilman Rocky Caldero is the biggest name in the race thus far but he will easily be swept aside by the eventual big name Democrat that enters this race. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of Former Alaskan United States Representative Nick Begich, who died is a plane crash back in the 70's, is the main target of Democrats for both the Senate and House race. Former Governor Tony Knowles may make that decision for him as it is rumored that he will seek the Senate seat, which would most likely push Begich into the House race. Knowles is not expected to run for the House which may leave an opening for State Representative Ethan Berkowitz, who was the Lieutenent Governor nominee for the Democrats in 2006.

As long as the Democrats run a strong candidate in both state races in Alaska next year, things should be hot in this very cold state. United States Representative Donald Young is also mired in his own ethical scandals with his connections to VECO corp also being looked at. His biggest problem isn't VECO though, its a congressional earmark that got re-written after it was voted on and past through the legislature. The earmark voted on in the Transportation bill was for 10 million dollars to an expansion project on I-75 in Florida. After the vote, it was re-written to make the project on for the controversial Coconut Road interchange. The project would greatly benefit one of Youngs major fundraisers and took place mere weeks after the benmefactor held a fundraiser for Young. Lee County Florida rejected the money after being warned that rejection could lead to fewer federal dollars down the road and the state of Florida is making plans to use the money for its intended purpose, the widening of I-75. The impact of these scandals can be seen is Young re-election numbers just last year before the earmarking scandal came out. Young was re-elected in 2004 with 71.1% of the vote but garnered just 56.6% in 2006 against underfunded little known playwright Diane Benson. Benson is looking for a re-match but is unexpected to make it past the primaries as the Democrats make a major push for this seat.

With ethics scandals abound on all levels of government in this state, the Democrats have a real shot at this senate and house seat. Unlike what appears to be a majority of the Republicans in this state, the Democrats here don't have any ethics problems.

Alabama 2008 races

2007-09-20T13:00:00.000-04:00

With the campaign season well under way, I'm going to make every effort to bring to races from across the country here to this blog, and we'll start in the state of Alabama.

Alabama features 1 senatorial contest and 7 congressional contests.

In the senate race, 2 term incumbent Republican Jefferson Sessions faces 3 term State Senator Vivian Davis Figures. Jefferson Sessions served 2 years as the assisstant United States Attorney for the Southern District of Alabama and was nominated and appointed to the United States Sttorney's position in 1981 by Ronald Reagan. He served in the position for 12 years. During his tenure, President Reagan nominated Sessions to be a federal judge but he was denied nomination by a 10-8 committee vote. In 1994, Sessions was elected the Attorney General of the state of Alabama serving just 2 years before defeating Roger Bedford 52%-46% in the senate contest during the 1994 Republican wave election. In 2002, Sessions crushed then State Auditor Susan Parker for re-election. He is looking to serve his third term.

Session's opponent, State Senator Vivian Davis Figures, is serving her full third term is the Alabama State Senate. She was elected on January 28th 1997 to serve the reamining term of her late husband, Micheal Figures, who was the President Pro Tempore of the senate. Before being elected to the State Senate, Figures was a member ofthe Mobile City Council and was an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee. Figures is the President and CEO of the Figured Legacy Education Foundation and serves on the Board of Directors for the Mobile Area Education Foundation.

Looking at this race, Figures doesn't stand much of a chance without some serious help from up ballot or down ballot races. The Democratic Presidential nominee is unlikely to help Figures with any coattails in Alabama and will most likely be a drag on the ticket. Only Barack Obama may have the ability to galvanize the african-american vote in this state to pull out additional votes for Figures. Looking at the congressional races doesn't give much hope for Figures for some down ballot reverse coat-tails.

In the 1st Congressional District, United States Representative Jo Robbins Bonner looks pretty well set in her race. The only announced Democratic Charity Executive Benjamin Lodmell who has zero name recognition and very little money. A similar scene plays out in the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th congressional districts. United States Representative Robert Aderholt (R 4th) faces off against little known and underfunded Greg Warren. United States Representative Robert Cramer (D 5th) faces off against little known and underfunded Ray McKee. His last FEC report lists him as having just under 10,000 Cash on Hand, I'm sure Cramer isn't staying awake at night worrying about that. Neither of the other 2 districts have any competition as of yet.

The interesting districts here in Alabam are the 2nd and 3rd districts, held by United States Representatives R. Terry Everett and Mike Rogers (both R) repsectively. Rumors swirl about the entrance of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright into one of these races, but no one seems to know which one he'll enter. The 3rd district is more favorably drawn, but already has a decently known Democratic candidate in Greg Pierce, who took 38.5% of the vote for the Democrats in 2006. Mark Layfield(I) is also running again after taking 2.1% of the vote in 2006. Which ever race Bright chooses to enter should be competetive, but it won't be enough to help the Democrats in this state.

currents predicitions

Senate: Safe Republican

1st District Safe Republican

2nd district safe Republican*

3rd District: Safe Republican *

4th district: safe Republican

5th District: safe Democrat

6th District: safe Republican

7th ditrict: safe Democrat

* potentially competetive if Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright enters the race.

the latest spin

2007-09-13T21:20:00.000-04:00

Tonight, President Bush put his spin on the report given by General Petraeus to Congress earlier this week, and as one might guess it was more of the same. We are gradually "making progress" against the terrorists. This is nothing new coming from the White House that declared "Mission Accomplished" over four years ago. Naturally, we must continue the war, as there is little other choice at this point. What is new, however, concerns the troop levels on the ground. Now that we have enlisted the aid of former Sunni terrorist thugs, who only joined our cause after the Iranian-backed Shiite militias began to beat them back, surely we are now able to reduce our troop levels. Let us now declare "the Surge" a success. The President should be praised, for after four long years "the Decider" listened to his commanders and increased troop levels on the ground. Now that the violence in the country has slowed by a few choice measures, we can begin to bring those troops home. Perhaps in 12 to 18 months we will return to the pre-Surge troop levels, conveniently coinciding with the departure of the current President. Surely, this is cause for celebration.

2007 Gubernatorial Preview: Mississippi

2007-09-11T20:26:00.000-04:00

In 2007 there will be 3 gubernatorial election, likely to be able to grab attention due to the lack of national election activity that night. A one-on-one election is already setup in Mississippi and Kentucky, where currently the Republican candidates are both ending their first terms. Mississippi's election may show an interesting new method for the Democratic Party.
Mississippi's Haley Barbour will be facing John Eaves, a creature once thought extinct. Mr. Eaves is a highly religious conservative, who also calls himself a Democrat; and for good reason. Yes, Mr. Eaves is against abortion, pro-in-school prayer, against current gambling laws and against the separation of church and state. On issues that people say they look towards religion to guide them, this candidate looks Republican. However, he also aims to help the poor through creating a "living wage", universal health care, cutting taxes on groceries and replacing them with ones on tobacco, and increasing funding of public schools.
However, Democrats are waiting to see if this plan works. He is running against a candidate who has proven that he can be elected in Mississippi, was once RNC chair, and has raised large sums of money through lobbying in Washington, with strong ties to the tobacco industry. Haley Barbour is no newcomer to the political cycle either. He has been in power circles since the early 1980s.
To win this election, John Eaves is going to have to prove opinion polls wrong, and show the Democratic party that not only can a Democrat win in the deep south, but that realigning with more conservative candidates will work.

For more information consult:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_gubernatorial_election%2C_2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/27/AR2007042702044.html

Next week I'll update with an preview of Kentucky.

Larry Craig: not resigning??

2007-09-05T16:46:00.000-04:00

Larry Craig, who was caught during an airport sex sting at Minneapolis airport, was set to resign on September 30th. However, recent revelations that Craig, who is fighting his charges, may not resign his seat if his name is cleared by the ethics committee. Either way you slice it, even if he is cleared of any ethical wrong doing according to senate rules, Larry Craig still attempted to solicit sex from an undercover police officer. The Democrats, especially Former Congressman Larry LaRocco who is challenging Craig or his replacement for the seat, will have a field day if Craig decides to stay and runs for re-election. Stay tuned for further updates as it appears the cycle of Republican corruption here isn't over yet.

Senate Races preview

2007-09-02T19:08:00.000-04:00

Hello to All, and welcome to the Partisan Politic. I'm Rob Millette and I'll be posting a variety of things about the Senate in the months to come including a monthly preview of the senate races.

To preview these races, I'll be using a tier system for ranking the races from a frist tier race to a fifth tier race. The first 3 tiers will be composed of competetive or potentially competetive races while the bottom 2 will be composed of safe seats. First tier races will be the best current takeover opportunities and usually the most competetive races, though in some instances, a first tier race will be a real snoozer. An instance of this will be this years Kentucky Governor's race. Steve Beshear is going to wipe the floor with the Incumbent Republican Ernie Fletcher, but since the Democrats will be taking over the seat, the race would be considered a first tier race.

Second tier races are races that could become competetive with just one change to the current setup. These races will focus on speculation of candidates who may enter the race to make the race competetive. New Hampshire is a good example of this, while it may actually find itself in the first tier anyway, if Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen enters the race, it will become a first tier race, but as long as Shaheen's entry is only speculation, it will sit here in the second tier. The second tier is the holding place for races that could either move up or drop off the map.

Third tier races are the races that need a few things to happen before the become competetive. Delaware is a good example of this type of Race. Senator Joe Biden is safe if he runs but he is running for President. If Biden's presidetial campaign pulls a rabbit out of the hat and then gets a miracle and he vacates his seat, The Republicans would then need Congressman Mike Castle to run for the seat to have a chance. So third tier seats need safe incumbents to leave AND strong candidates to enter.

A fourth tier seat is considered realtively safe. Idaho issuch a seat. Even with Former Senator Larry Craig's resignation is disgrace due to his solicitation of a male undercover officer in the Minneapolis airports men's room, it is widely expected that popular Lt. Governor Jim Risch will be appointed to the seat. Even with Craig's troubles adding a stain to the GOP name, I just don't see former Congressman Larry LaRocco winning this seat. However, this would be a 4th tier race because of the circumstances in Idaho. This seat is less safe than other seats considered safe.

The fifth tier is obviously made up of seats that are as a safe as they get. Massachusetts and Senator John Kerry sit among this listing. Kerry has the seat until he leaves it and even then, a Democrat will win it. End of discussion.

Tier rankings will run the first Saturday of every month and the actual rankings will begin in October. Let the games begin.

The Senate Race - 2008

2007-08-08T20:53:00.000-04:00

On the map you will see the party of the incumbents from each state for the 2008 US Senate Election. The only differences to note, the lighter shading in Colorado is due to the current incumbent retiring, and in Wyoming, both Senators are up for reelection. Here is Rob with your preview of the US Senate Race.

(image courtesy of Wikipedia, United States Senate Elections, 2008

Gilmore Withdraws

2007-07-15T15:22:00.000-04:00

4th tier Republican Presidential candidate Jim Gilmore has withdrawn due to lackluster fundraising. It is suspected Gilmore may enter either the Virginia Senate race or the next Virginia Governor race.

Candidate Bio - Sam Brownback

2007-07-11T21:09:00.000-04:00

Sam Brownback is a Senator from Kansas and is considered a second tier candidate for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Senator Brownback lives in Parker Kansas and is married to Mary Brownback and has 5 children, Elizabeth, Andy, Abby, Mark, and Jenna.

Senator Brownback's first office was the Secratary of Agriculture in 1986 and he held the position until 1993. During this time period, he was the White House Fellow detailed to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative for 2 years starting in 1990. In 1995, Senator Brownback was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives where he served 2 years before being elected to the Senate in 1996 where he still serves today.

Senator Brownback was supposed to to emerge in the debates as a conservative contender, but so far he has done anything but that. The Senator's low-key style doesn't serve him in a debate where he must find a way to distinguish himself from the rest of the candidates. Brownback has had only a few moments where he really shined with his attack on former President Bill Clinton being the highlight. Brownback's problem is that he really hasn't done anything to make any real news. Brownback has a small opening where he can inject himself into the major candidates as the conservative choice with McCain falling apart and Thompson not officially in the race but hsi time is limited and his lack of funds doesn't help him. Brownback had only raised $2,757,171 in the last 2 quarters and has transferred another 500,000 from his Senate account.

If The Senator is to have any chance he needs to do something to really make him stick out and begin to gain support. Brownback is spending heavily in Iowa and is counting on a good showing at the Ames Straw Poll and in the Iowa Caucuses to propel his campaign into the primaries. The recent announcement of his faith and family Leadership Council in Iowa is another step in the right direction for him. Former State Representative and pro-family activist Chuck Hurley will chair the committee. Iowa is ground zero for Brownback, if he fails to do well there, his chances never get off the ground.

McCain Campaign Firings

2007-07-10T23:10:00.000-04:00

In 2004, it was following the New Hampshire and Iowa primaries, neither of which found Howard Dean in first place, that he fired his Campaign Manager, Joe Trippi. He had been the favorite during the months leading up to the primaries. That was January 2004, just shy of 9 months prior to the election. Today, still early July 2007, we are 16 months prior to the election, and there are firings. Think the heat has been turned up a little bit?

Today, a slew of McCain advisers resigned.
John Weaver - top advisor to the campaign
Terry Nelson - you may remember him from the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004, or the attack ads against Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee during the 2006 Senate Election.

According to the Washington Post Blog
Mary Kate Johnson- financial director
More details on that later

Introduction

2007-07-10T22:31:00.000-04:00

Hello everybody,
My name is Bill Stiles, and I'm a twenty year old college student from the great state of Massachusetts. I spend my summers on the south shore and my school years at college very close to the New Hampshire border, so when at school I am near one of the great primary states, and therefore, alot of political buzz. I'm a self-proclaimed moderate but I do lean towards the right on a variety of issues. I look forward to future postings on heated political topics and races.

Left of Center

2007-06-19T22:40:00.000-04:00

Hello,
My name is Matt Rodgers, a left of center news-junkie from Long Island, NY. You will probably see most of my posts concerning national issues and presidential candidates for 2008. It is certainly a great time to be a New Yorker when looking at the national spotlight; Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, and (maybe even) Micheal Bloomberg, vying for the possibility to be on the November 2008 tickets. I have a Bachelor of Science degree from Penn State and will be attending the University of South Carolina starting in the Fall 2007 semester for graduate study; so though I have lived my whole life in NY, I have and am constantly being exposed to different regional views. Through this blog, I hope to not only vocalize my own opinions, but also understand the reasons that others disagree with my stances.

Introduction

2007-06-19T22:21:00.000-04:00

I'm Rob Millette, a liberal leaning Democrat also from the Great State of Massachusetts. I'm 24, graduated college with an associates degree, and have been involved in politics at both the Local and state levels for 8 years. I look forward to posting in the near future and to the many debates I'll be having with all of you, readers and administrators alike.

The Right Idea

2007-06-19T22:14:00.000-04:00

Hello everyone!

For those who do not know me, my name is Jared Valanzola. I'm a conservative Republican from the great state of Massachusetts. Watch my blog for my opinion on the 2008 election as well as a plethora of other issues!

Blog Edits

2007-06-18T23:31:00.000-04:00

This post establishes how to label your posts:
Any changes to the site should be labelled as: Blog Edits
As for the politically based articles:
Liberal Opinion
Moderate Opinion
Conservative Opinion
News Topics
Candidate News

Welcome to Partisan Politics

2007-06-18T23:19:00.000-04:00

Welcome to Partisan Politics, a forum where people can blog on political issues that are important to them. There will be a mix of opinion and news (which we hope bloggers can delineate the difference) sorted by where it falls on the political spectrum. For this reason, please exercise restraint from voicing overly sexist, racist, or any other discriminatory remarks; administrators can remove such posts and comments, though we recommend they don't act alone in doing so. The purpose of this site is for everyone to gain an understanding of the point of view on the other side. And thus the name says, we support openly partisan statements.